This Saturday, 14 December 2024, Colby “Chaos” Covington (17-4, 4 knockouts, 4 submissions, 9 decisions) will headline the main event of UFC on ESPN 36 at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. His opponent, Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley (20-6, 14 knockouts, 6 decisions) will be his more than worthy opponent. This welter weight (170 pounds) headliner will be the first fight of 2024 for the 36-year-old Covington, who was last seen in the octagon on 16 December 2023 losing a lackluster, 5—round unanimous decision to then champion Leon Edwards.

If his poor performance versus the less aggressive Edwards is any indication, then Covington is in for a bad night versus the aggressive, well-conditioned, cerebral, and prime Buckley. Meanwhile, this will be Buckley’s first headlining event, his fourth fight of the year, and third fight this year versus a current, top 15 ranked UFC opponent. For what the ridiculous UFC ranking system is worth—even Dana White lambasts it—Covington and Buckley are ranked 6th and 9th, respectively.

The ranking system, however, is less ridiculous than Covington’s professional wrestling gimmick, though. In this capacity he is an obnoxious, vitriol spouting, ultra-conservative, All-American. After going 7-1 in his first eight UFC fights, he wasn’t getting the promotional push he thought he deserved from the UFC, so he turned heal (in wrestling parlance, aka the bad guy). He first introduced this “All-American” character to the masses in Sao Paulo, Brazil on 28 October 2017 in a win over Demian Maia. During his post-fight, octagon interview, Covington called Brazil a dump and Brazilians “filthy animals” (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=479l-lMFDh4), and the rest is history. Covington’s post-fight rant went viral and brought him to the forefront of MMA’s collective consciousness at that time. He literally injected some character into what were usually blah interviews, press-conferences, and fight-buildups. His polarizing persona garnered him everything he always wanted: notoriety, money, a strong promotional push, and attention from “The Boss”, White himself.

Which brings us to this Saturday. Some pundits believe that this is the last hurrah for the 36-year-old Covington. White has already granted him three shots at the welterweight title in his last five fights. You read it right, three championship opportunities in his last five fights. The absurdity of that is beyond comprehension. But it demonstrates that the Ultimate Fighting Championship, under White’s leadership, is not a meritocracy. Of course, aficionados already know this to be the case, but if you don’t count yourself as such, I present you with the following evidence for your consideration.

Exhibit 1: This year, the 30-year-old Buckley has knocked out 14th ranked Vicente Luque in March and 10th ranked Stephen Thompson in October. Covington, on the other hand, has no wins versus current, top 15 ranked opposition. Yet here he is, coming off an uninspired, losing effort, getting rewarded with another main event. He’s also ranked higher than Buckley. Exhibit 2: Covington has 2 wins and 3 losses in his last five fights. His two wins are against Jorge Masvidal (a journeyman at best) in March 2022 and former champion Tyrone Woodley (who was already on a 2-fight losing streak) in September 2020. For more context, both Masvidal and Woodley both left the UFC on 4 fight losing streaks, yet they are, arguably, Covington’s best wins. Exhibit 3: Covington was granted his third title shot 21 months after his win over Masvidal with no fights in—between. Simply put, Covington has been one of the most prolific beneficiaries of Dana White Privilege (DWP). I’d rank him second in DWP behind current, disputed UFC heavyweight champion and world-class hypocrite Jon Jones.

What does a win over Buckley do for Covington? Given the above, you and I both know the answer to that…likely another title shot. However, if he loses, which I believe he will, then it leaves him as a de facto gatekeeper. You know, the three—time title challenger that young, up-and-coming fighters want on their resumes. Will he stick around to be THAT guy? Maybe, maybe not. His gimmick has long exceeded its expiration date, so I’m sure he can come up with another one. Wait. Who am I kidding? No, he can’t. If all else fails, remember, he likely will still have some DWP. What does a win do for Buckley? It depends on how he wins. Make no mistake, Covington is a solid fighter. At his best, he’s a volume-striking, aggressive wrestler, whose pace and pressure can wilt lesser opponents. What’s more, he’s never been dominated, finished early, or brutally knocked out. If Buckley can do either, then maybe he can get some of that DWP too. Enjoy the fistivities!